If you lost your ATM card on the street, how easy would it be for
someone to correctly guess your PIN and proceed to clean out your
savings account? Quite easy, according to data scientist Nick Berry,
founder of Data Genetics, a Seattle technology consultancy.
Berry analyzed passwords from previously released and exposed tables and
security breaches, filtering the results to just those that were
exactly four digits long [0-9]. There are 10,000 possible combinations
that the digits 0-9 can be arranged into to form a four-digit code.
Berry analyzed those to find which are the least and most predictable.
He speculates that, if users select a four-digit password for an online
account or other web site, it's not a stretch to use the same number for
their four-digit bank PIN codes.
What he found, he says, was a "staggering lack of imagination" when it
comes to selecting passwords. Nearly 11% of the 3.4 million four-digit
passwords he analyzed were 1234. The second most popular PIN in is 1111
(6% of passwords), followed by 0000 (2%). (Last year Splash Data compiled
a list of the most common numerical and word-based passwords and found
that "password" and "123456" topped the list.)
Berry says a whopping 26.83% of all passwords could be guessed by
attempting just 20 combinations of four-digit numbers (see first table).
"It's amazing how predictable people are," he says.
We don't like hard-to-remember numbers and "no one thinks their wallet will get stolen," Berry says.
Days, Months, Years
Many of the commonly used passwords are, of course, dates: birthdays,
anniversaries, year of birth, etc. Indeed, using a year, starting with
19__, helps people remember their code, but it also increases its
predictability, Berry says. His analysis shows that every single 19__
combination be found in the top 20% of the dataset.
"People use years, date of birth ” it's a monumentally silly thing to
do because, if you lose your wallet, your driver's license is in there.
If someone finds it, they've got the date of birth on there. At least
use a parent's date of birth [as a password]," says Berry. Somewhat
intriguing was #22 on the most common password list: 2580. It seems
random, but if you look at a telephone keypad (or ATM keypad), you'll
see those numbers are straight down the middle ” yet another sign that
we're uncreative and lazy password makers.
The Least Predictable Password
The least-used PIN is 8068, Berry found, with just 25 occurrences in the
3.4 million set, which equates to 0.000744%. (See the second table for
the least popular passwords.) Why this set of numbers? Berry guesses,
"It's not a repeating pattern, it's not a birthday, it's not the year
Columbus discovered America, it's not 1776." At a certain point, these
numbers at the bottom of the list are all kind of "the lowest of the
low, they're all noise," he says.
A few other interesting tidbits from Berry:
-The most popular PIN code (1234) is used more than the lowest 4,200
codes combined. - People have even less imagination in choosing
five-digit passwords ” 28% use 12345. - The fourth most popular
seven-digit password is 8675309, inspired by the Tommy Tutone song.
-People love using couplets for their PINs: 4545, 1313, etc. And for
some reason, they don't like using pairs of numbers that have larger
numerical gaps between them. Combinations like 45 and 67 occur much more
frequently than 29 and 37. - The 17th most common 10-digit password is
3141592654 (for those of you who are not math nerds, those are the first
digits of Pi).
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